Good morning,
Late today into the weekend has the potential for being active, weather wise. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early this evening. Relatively quiet weather is expected on Saturday before the potential for extreme fire weather conditions AND strong to severe thunderstorms affects north Texas on Sunday.
OVERVIEW
A dry line has set up across western Texas today, roughly from Childress to San Angelo. This dry line will move east this afternoon, allowing for a few thunderstorms to develop, especially west of I-35 and north of I-20. This afternoon’s thunderstorm potential is in the low probability, but potentially high-impact category. In other words, the possibility of thunderstorms is low, but any thunderstorm that does develop will likely become severe.
The dryline will move back into west Texas tonight as winds remain southerly. As a result, Saturday is expected to be partly sunny, windy, and humid with no storms expected.
A strong upper level storm will then approach north Texas late Saturday night, finally allowing the dry line to get a strong push eastward. By Sunday, areas west of I-35 will be under extreme fire weather conditions, while areas east of I-35 will see the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.
IMPACTS
If thunderstorms develop this afternoon, the primary threats will be lightning and large hail. West of I-35 on Sunday…wind speeds are expected to increase to 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph. Along with the strong winds, the relative humidity levels are expected to drop below 20% during the afternoon hours. East of I-35 on Sunday…there will be the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms that would contain large hail and damaging straight line winds.
TIMING
If thunderstorms are able to develop this afternoon, the most likely impact times would be between 4 PM and 8 PM. Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday between 11AM and 7 PM, to the west of I-35. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday after 2 PM, to the east of I-35.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE
This afternoon: Confidence is low concerning thunderstorm development across north Texas. Confidence is high that if thunderstorms develop or move into the area, they would be severe.
Sunday: Confidence is moderate to high in the potential for critical fire weather. Confidence is low concerning the development of thunderstorms.
FORECAST POSSIBILITIES
The exact position of the dry line and the strength of the capping inversion make the thunderstorm forecast very difficult for this afternoon. This may be a case when only one or two strong storms develop near the dry line, move east, and then dissipate shortly after sunset. If the cap holds through Sunday, that could stop thunderstorms from developing on Sunday as well. If the upper level storm system moves a bit further north on Sunday, the wind speeds would not be as strong on Sunday, but that would knock the extreme fire weather conditions down to “only” a high category.
BOTTOM LINE
Emergency Managers, public safety and elected officials should monitor National Weather Service statements, outlooks, and graphics concerning thunderstorm development this afternoon. Fire marshals, fire departments, and other public safety officials west of I-35 should be prepared for at least high fire weather conditions on Sunday. Limited spotter activations and deployments will be possible this afternoon, and Sunday afternoon and evening.
USEFUL WEBSITES
National Weather Service Fort Worth
http://www.weather.gov/fortworth
Be careful out there and have a safe weekend.
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